Bet highlight:

1. Result of 3:1 is what we usually see at BO5 finals.
2. Yesterday, we saw that Spirit can drop a map hard if the other team knows the map well.
3. Spirit is the clear favorite here, but it's reasonable to expect Astralis to take a map -especially since there's exactly one in the pool that favors them and isn't a perma-ban.

Full analysis:

A quick analysis for the finals of PGL Astana, where Astralis will face off against Team Spirit. I like the 3:1 exact scoreline here for a couple of reasons. First, it’s the most common BO5 result overall - even if we haven’t seen it much in recent tournaments, historically it's what shows up the most, and the current odds don’t fully reflect that. Second, Astralis has exactly one map - Ancient - where they clearly have an edge and which isn’t a perma-ban for either side. That’s the simplest route to them grabbing a single map. Of course, other less likely paths to a map win exist, but Ancient is the most straightforward. Form-wise, Spirit is still the stronger team by far, but they’re not in their absolute top form, and we’ve already seen them drop a map when the opponent came in well-prepared. On the other side, Astralis is still rebuilding and might lose steam over the course of the series, which makes the 3:1 result very plausible. This is a fairly specific bet, so I’m keeping the confidence low, but I do think it’s worth a small shot.

Good luck and enjoy the finals!